First, lets examine the most common of these events earthquakes.
From 1,000 to 3,000 earthquakes occur each year within Yellowstone National Park and its immediate surroundings. Most are too small and can't be felt. Several quakes can be felt by visitors to the park each year.
The main causes for the quakes are rising magma and faults. The most extreme earthquake in Yellowstone’s recent history occurred in 1959. It was a magnitude 7.5 and killed over 25 people. Damage was over 10 million dollars (In today's standards that is over 50 million dollars). Another sizable quake happened in 1975 near Norris.
If you do the math you will find that another major earth quake should have occurred around 1991. This quake is now 32 years past due.
Second, we will look at hydrothermal explosions.
The magma reservoir beneath Yellowstone may have temperatures higher than 1,400F As water seeps into the ground. All over Yellowstone National Park are places where hot ground water has risen close to the surface. A few good examples of this are Fishing Cone, (located in West Thumb basin), with a temperature of 199F and Churning Caldron, (located in the mud volcano area of the park), with a temperature of 164F.
Do to waters ability to have a higher boiling point under the ground, water under the surface can suddenly boil resulting in explosions, Like Old Faithful. Rarely, steam explosions can toss rocks thousands of feet. In Yellowstone’s geologic past, such violent events, on the other hand, are a common occurrence in the big scheme of things, creating many new geological features in and around Yellowstone.
One of the most recent one of these events occurred in early 2003, a long linear fissure appeared on a hillside above Nymph Lake. This resulted in venting steam and tossing rock's onto the surrounding hillside. Other examples include a explosion that happened in 1989 in Norris Geyser Basin. Porkchop Geyser has visible today from this event. In the 1880s and early 1890s, explosions occurred at Excelsior Geyser in the Midway Geyser Basin, these hurled large rocks as far as 50 feet. Much larger hydrothermal explosions have occurred at Yellowstone in the recent geologic past. A few more, more violent, have occurred between Norris and Mammoth. The biggest crater, caused by this type of event, is 1.5 miles in diameter and was formed over 13,700 years ago is known as Mary Bay.
Third is lava flows.
Lava Flows seem to accrue without very much regularity. A few have been as recent as 70,000 year ago, most occurred 160,000 years ago. These events cover as much as 125 square miles in lava and can take several years to do so. After one of these events happens in Yellowstone, which has not happened in our life time, It will make the fires of 1988 look small due to the fires and path of destruction this event will create.
Well as I don't foresee this as being a upcoming event in Yellowstone for at least the nest 10,000 years, 30 of them have happened within the last 640,000 years.
Finally the one we have all been waiting for...
YELLOWSTONE
SUPER VOLCANO
This is the main and most catastrophic event Yellowstone has to offer. Massive caldera-forming eruptions only three have occurred in the past several million years. These have happened with amazing regularity of around 600,000 years apart.
The only eruption missing from this map occurred 1.3 million years ago. This eruption formed the Henrys Fork Caldera west of Yellowstone National Park. This eruption also created what is now called Mesa Falls Tuff.
If Yellowstone were to erupt today it will effect the world in such a way that we could not comprehend. This could mean the end of America and mass climate change worldwide.
To give you a good idea on regularity of this event here is what we know from the past,
1. Huckleberry Ridge Tuff 2.1 million years ago
2. Mesa Falls Tuff 1.3 Million years ago
3. Lava Creek Tuff 640,000 years ago, this event also formed the Yellowstone Caldera.
So, that means we are due. When this event happens make sure you are prepared Executive 72-hour Kit - As seen on CNN!
Final thoughts,
Earthquake - Way over due, I predict the next one over 6.0 will be around March 2010
Hydrothermal explosions - No prediction given
Lava flows - My prediction is that you will not see one of these for at least 2,000 years
Yellowstone Volcano - My prediction for the super volcano eruption is May of 2012
